The Israeli parliamentary election has failed to yield a clear majority for anyone. Early results from the 120-seat parliament (Knesset) show that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has secured a majority. In the early stages, both leaders claimed victory in front of their supporters, but as vote counting progressed, it became clear that neither side has reached the 61-seat threshold required to form a government.

What Do the Early Figures Show?

Netanyahu-led Likud bloc: 53 seats

Eisenkot-led opposition bloc: 48 seats

Arab-led parties: A record 19 seats

Arab Parties Become Kingmakers

The biggest turning point in this election is the performance of the Arab parties. Israeli Arab citizens, who account for roughly 20 percent of the population, voted collectively to win 19 seats. The Arab parties' alliance now holds the "kingmaker" role.

Dilemma for the Opposition

If Eisenkot aligns with the Arab parties, he can oust Netanyahu from power.

However, since Eisenkot positions himself as the leader of a hardline "Zionist opposition," relying on Arab lawmakers for support could alienate his voter base.

Yair Golan, leader of the center-left 'Democrats', has openly advocated for including Arab parties in the government, arguing that these voters cannot be ignored.

The opposition fears losing voters who want Netanyahu out but feel uncomfortable relying on Arab MPs.

Likud Alleges Vote Rigging

Netanyahu’s Likud party has raised questions over the electoral process, alleging widespread irregularities in Arab-majority polling stations, including cash distribution and identity fraud. Likud has demanded an investigation. The Central Elections Committee dismissed the claim, stating that all complaints are being reviewed under standard procedures and no concrete evidence of tampering has been found in the results so far.

What's Next?

Unity Government: To avoid repeat elections and amid soaring tensions in the Middle East, Netanyahu and Eisenkot could potentially form a unity government, possibly with a rotating premiership agreement. However, given the sharp attacks exchanged between both sides during the campaign, this possibility appears weak.

The President's Role: Following the final tally of votes from soldiers and diplomats, President Isaac Herzog will consult with all political parties and invite the leader with the strongest prospect of assembling a coalition to form a government. If no leader manages to secure a signed letter of support from 61 MPs within the designated timeframe, new elections may be called.

Note: These figures are based on preliminary results and are subject to change following the final vote count.